Market Review 2022-09-21

Comments (Very Rare Section)

-Feds-

Today was Fed day. It was interesting to see the market react. Big move down and then back up big time and then everything broke down. I am not sure, what spooked the market to end up so negative. The feds already said several times, they will do everything to get inflation in check. According to the Fed Watch Tool the next increase is still expected to be 75 basis points. The probabilities increased to 70% (I ignore past comma digits for that) from 54% (9/18)

-Global-
Putin announced today that he will draft 300.000 people from the reserves to fight in the Ukraine. I believe the market has widely ignored how bad the situation is.  If the so called 'referendum' in the occupied areas will go pro Putin (which they will), Putin will treat the area as part of Russia. That this will not be recognized by the rest of the world does not matter to him. There are really bad things to come. 

I will have to think how to protect my portfolio for a worst case scenario.

Long Term Picture 3Y/W SPY

Some times it makes no sense to back further than 3 years. The current prices on SPY have not been seen other then in the past 3 years.

With that picture the 360 level is more likely than a bounce here.

Market SQN

Today's price movement put the SQN right at the border to strong bear market. While I am writing this the E-mini's are down already 28 points. The volatility ticked up as well and is making higher highs and higher lows. If volatility trends up that means, there is trouble in the market.

Big 5 and VIX

I am still surprised how well IWM holds up. In the VIX chart I removed 1 trend line that does no longer add any value. While there is a big range on the VIX today, opening and closing are very close together, making it a doji with big wigs.

Conclusion

There is always a bull market somewhere. TBT is certainly something to look into as well as any of the inverse ETF's. I don't think it is to late.

Disclosure

I have been beneficially long the shares in SPY, IWM and QQQ. I have no position in TBT and will not enter one in the next 48 hours. I wrote this article myself and it expresses my own views and opinions. I am not receiving any compensation for this. I have no business relation ship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am not an investment advisor or professional. This article is my personal opinion and experience and is not meant to be a recommendation of the purchase or sale of a stock or option. Investors should conduct their own research before investing to see if the companies discussed in this article fit into their portfolio parameters.